-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
175
FXUS62 KMHX 150551
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
151 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather across the
area through Wednesday. High pressure builds in late Thursday
before another low pressure system impacts us this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Tue...No big changes with late eve update. Showers
with ocnl possible thunder cont to plod east, and will be off
the coast after around midnight.

Prev disc... As of 7 PM Tue...Area of showers cont to move
through ENC this evening, though covg is a bit sct for the time
being. Have removed mention of mod showers, as intensity is
quite light, and heavier conv elements should remain offshore.
There is decent low level helicity, as evidenced by back sfc
wind profile from 150 degrees, and VWP confirming up to 400
M2/S2 of helicity. Very little CAPE is precluding a severe
mention, though some of the low topped showers are exhibiting
rotation along the I95 corridor and bear watching over the next
couple hours. Still expecting showers to exit after midnight,
with attention turning to fog and low stratus late tonight.

Prev disc... As of 310 PM Tue...Latest analysis shows weak low
pressure developing along the warm front over SC. Low will
continue to strengthen as it lifts into NC tonight, with
moderate to heavy rain overspreading the area. The combination
of strong frontogenetic forcing and upper level support with an
approaching vort max strongly suggest numerous to widespread
coverage of showers through late this evening, as front lifts
north and wave strengthens. Main concern is the risk of heavy
rainfall, given very saturated model soundings and forecast
PWATs soaring north of 1.75". For climatological context, the
90th percentile of PWATs for today is around 1.50". Through 18z,
radar and MRMS estimate rainfall totals less than 0.25". Storm
total rainfall amts through Wed morning 0.75-1.5" with locally
higher amounts possible. Once the warm front crosses the region
in the evening, instability will quickly increase behind it and
a few thunderstorms are possible. Given long skinny CAPE
profiles, these storms could result in isolated but strong
downpours and pose a risk for flooding particularly in urban and
poor drainage areas. A brief lull in precipitation is likely
after midnight as dry slot moves overhead, but a few stray
showers and iso thunderstorms are still possible. There is
potential for patchy fog to develop inland between 6-12z, with
saturated low levels and light winds. Very mild temperatures in
the 60s expected overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 310 PM Tue...Sfc low will grad push away from the area,
while the upper level trough and attendant sfc cold front
approach Wed. Think most of the morning will remain dry with
only iso showers. A better chance for stronger storms with
better upper level support, colder temps aloft, and greater
instability coupled with around 30-35 kt of bulk shear. SPC has
a marginal risk (1 of 5) of severe storms across the coastal
plain during the afternoon and evening. Temps will continue to
be seasonable with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 515 AM Tuesday...Front will move through Wednesday night
and early Thursday. High pressure builds in Thursday night into
Friday but another low pressure system will impact the area
late in the week.

Thursday through Monday...Upper ridging builds in from the west
Thursday with a vertically stacked low off the Mid-Atlantic
coast slowly moving eastward. ECWMF continues to be the slowest
solution keeping cyclonic flow across the area keeping isolated
showers and thunderstorm chances through much of the day and
will keep slight chance PoPs. Ridging crests over the area
Thursday night but will slide offshore Friday with another
frontal system quickly moving into the area late in the week but
once again guidance differs with how the system evolves as it
pushes across the Southeast and off the coast over the weekend.
But despite the differences, most guidance brings another round
of descent rainfall amounts across much of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SHORT TERM /through 06Z Thursday/...
As of 150 AM Wed...Mixed bag of sub-VFR flight conditions is
expected to become prevailing IFR after 06z as deep low-level
moisture lingers over the area in very light flow. Shower
activity is quickly departing the Outer Banks and expect
predominantly dry conditions through sunrise tomorrow. Cigs will
be slow to rise tomorrow morning with light southwesterly flow
at 5 kt or less but will reach VFR by midday. However, scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop by mid-
afternoon and pose a threat for all terminals into the evening.
Highest risk for OAJ/EWN is mid-afternoon (18-22z) while for
ISO/OAJ greater risk is late afternoon to evening (20-00z).

Convective activity will wane late Wednesday as cold front
pushes southward across the area. Ceilings are expected to crash
immediately behind this boundary in light northerly flow.
Guidance suggests at least predominantly MVFR cigs but periods
of IFR are very much in play.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 5 AM Tuesday...Sub-VFR conditions possible Wednesday
night with plenty of low level moisture in place. Pred VFR
returns Thursday but could see isolated showers bringing brief
sub-VFR conditions. Pred VFR continues Friday but another
frontal system will approach the area bringing increasing clouds
with sub-VFR possible Friday night into Saturday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 310 PM Tue...Latest obs show S-SE winds 15-25 kt with
seas 3-7 ft, highest south of Hatteras. Winds will continue to
increase this afternoon, peaking this evening at 20-25 kt with
gusts 30-35 kt. As low pressure and attendant warm front cross
the waters tonight, winds will veer southwesterly and decrease
to around 10-15 kt. Seas will peak at 6-9 ft. Current SCAs look
good and will continue into tonight and Wednesday. Low pressure
will continue to pull away from the waters Wednesday while a
cold front approaches late Wednesday. SW winds generally 10-15
kt Wed, with gusts to 20 kt. Small Craft Advisory seas will
continue with seas around 5-7 ft early Wednesday, gradually
subsiding to below 6 ft late Wednesday/Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 515 AM Tuesday...A cold front pushes through Wednesday
night and Thursday. SW winds become Nly Wednesday night behind
the cold front.  High pressure build into the area Thursday
night bringing light winds then slides offshore Friday with
winds becoming Sly around 10-15 kt Friday night and Saturday
ahead of the next frontal system with seas around 3-5 ft.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ195-196-199-204-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ131-135>137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ156-158.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/MS
MARINE...CQD/SK